NASA scientists have increased the predicted risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in December 2032, more than doubling the initial probability of impact in just a few weeks.
Initially detected just after Christmas, the asteroid was first estimated to have a 1.3% chance of striking Earth. That probability has now risen to 3.1%, according to NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
While the overall risk remains relatively low, a probability above 2% is considered uncommon, said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).
“Getting something with a probability like 2% is high for us,” Farnocchia told media.
How Dangerous is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
NASA has classified 2024 YR4 as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, which ranks asteroid hazards from 0 to 10. Most near-Earth objects typically rank at zero.
The asteroid, which has an unusual elongated orbit, is currently moving away from Earth. Its path takes it around the Sun, swinging close to our planet before traveling far out between Mars and Jupiter.
Because of this irregular trajectory, 2024 YR4 will disappear from view starting in April and won’t be visible again until 2028, creating a critical window for astronomers to study it further.
“We don’t want to take any chances,” Farnocchia emphasized.
NASA Deploys James Webb Space Telescope to Study Asteroid
To refine their predictions, NASA scientists will use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)—the most powerful space telescope ever launched—to track the asteroid and measure its infrared emissions.
Unlike traditional telescopes that rely on visible light reflection, infrared observations provide a much more accurate estimate of an asteroid’s size and composition.
2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 feet and 330 feet (40 to 100 meters) in diameter, large enough to cause localized destruction if it were to impact a densely populated city.
For reference, the Tunguska event of 1908, caused by an asteroid of similar size, flattened 1,250 square miles of forest in Siberia.
Global Astronomers Racing Against Time
The international astronomy community is closely monitoring 2024 YR4 using multiple telescopes and advanced tracking methods to refine its projected path.
“We are tracking this object every night,” Farnocchia confirmed.
With a limited time window before the asteroid vanishes from view, scientists are working rapidly to analyze its orbit, composition, and potential impact risks.
While the odds of an Earth impact remain low, the heightened probability has placed 2024 YR4 under intense scrutiny, reinforcing NASA’s ongoing efforts to track and prepare for potential asteroid threats.
