LONDON — Millions of Ukrainians have been plunged into frequent darkness and cold as Russian drones and missiles wage a systematic long-range campaign against the country’s energy grid for the fourth consecutive winter. Rolling power cuts now define life in cities and towns across almost every region.
Even at the headquarters of state-owned oil and gas giant Naftogaz in Kyiv, emergency generators are keeping the lights on. “What I can see from my window — there is an absolutely dark city with only some lights,” Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi told media. “I’m sure people recognize this winter as the most difficult since the full-scale invasion started. We can see power cuts from four up to 10 hours a day.”
Ukraine’s officials say Russia’s nightly bombardments have increasingly focused on energy infrastructure in recent months, often involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly appealed for more Western military aid to blunt the strikes, warning that “the Russians’ goal is to hurt millions of Ukrainians.”
Billions needed to repair the gas system and keep heat flowing
Between October and December so far, Naftogaz has recorded 11 “massive attacks on gas infrastructure across Ukraine,” Koretskyi said. “Our gas production infrastructure has suffered significant damage and destruction,” he added. Naftogaz estimates that covering the gas shortfall and repairing production and storage infrastructure will cost more than $3 billion.
The company says it supplies gas to 12.5 million households and that about 80% of Ukrainians who use gas rely on it to heat their homes. Virtually all of Ukraine’s regions now face routine rolling blackouts imposed to protect the grid while repairs are carried out, leaving millions with only a few hours of electricity each day. “Their goal is clear — this is pure terrorism,” Koretskyi said, “to put us into the darkness without heat during this winter season.”
On the ground, the damage is visible and immediate. On Dec. 4, the central heating plant in the southern frontline city of Kherson was knocked offline after days of attacks by Russian weapons systems. Local authorities said the disruption left more than 40,000 people without heat just as winter temperatures set in.
Western air defenses and funding are seen as crucial
Analysts and Ukrainian officials say that Western assistance will be vital to getting the country through this winter. Political consultant Kateryna Odarchenk wrote for the Center for European Policy Analysis that, without substantial Western support — particularly air defense systems, transformers and financial help for emergency repairs — blackouts are likely to become more regular, people will suffer more in the cold and economic activity may slow.
Zelenskyy and his top officials have consistently pressed allies to provide more air defense systems and ammunition to help protect cities, military sites and critical infrastructure. Yuriy Boyechko, CEO of the Hope For Ukraine charity, told media that the current energy crisis is the result of inadequate air defenses against a “relentless deluge of Russian missiles and drones.” He said “The only viable solution is immediate, comprehensive air defense support from Western allies.”
Ukraine is also striking back, targeting Russian oil storage and refining facilities in long-range operations that Kyiv says are aimed at the revenue streams funding Moscow’s invasion. But for ordinary Ukrainians, the immediate concern is whether lights and heating will stay on as Russian attacks grow “larger and more sophisticated,” in Koretskyi’s words.
LNG imports and long-term energy battle
The bombardment has torn holes in Ukraine’s energy network and forced Kyiv to look abroad for supplies. As of December, Naftogaz estimated that Ukraine needed to import 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas through the end of the heating season, which the government expects to run until around March 31. That volume is expected to cost about €1.9 billion — around $2.2 billion — but Koretskyi said a funding gap of roughly €600 million remains.
Kyiv is turning to private companies in gas-rich nations such as the United States to help fill the shortfall. Firms require two permits to export natural gas to Ukraine — one from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and one from the Department of Energy — and Ukrainian officials are encouraging long-term contracts. More than 500 million cubic meters of American liquefied natural gas have already been imported this year, with another 300 million cubic meters agreed for early next year. Through 2026, Naftogaz would like to bring in an additional 1 billion cubic meters of U.S. LNG and “build long-term relationships with U.S. LNG suppliers,” Koretskyi said.
A recent agreement to import American LNG via the Soviet-era Trans-Balkan pipeline running from Greece is part of this strategy. But as attacks continue, the costs and complexity of recovery are rising. Naftogaz’s list of equipment needed for repairs now runs to around 190 items, with an estimated cost of more than $900 million. There are two lists, Koretskyi said — one for repairing or replacing damaged or destroyed assets, and a second for strategic reserves in anticipation of future strikes.
Lead times for producing, delivering and installing the equipment range from eight to 18 months. That means Ukraine must prepare not only for the current winter but also for the next heating season, even as the present one unfolds. U.S. and European suppliers could prove pivotal in filling those gaps.
‘Not a sprint, it’s a marathon’ for Ukrainians under fire
Throughout the full-scale invasion, which began in February 2022 after eight years of lower-intensity Russian aggression, Moscow has denied intentionally targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure. The Russian Defense Ministry insists it strikes Ukrainian fuel and energy facilities that support the armed forces and military-industrial enterprises.
For Ukrainians living with nightly air-raid sirens and rolling outages, those denials do little to ease the strain. “It’s like a nightmare,” Koretskyi said of life under recurring blackouts. He believes Ukrainians understand that Russia will continue to bomb the energy system and that they must prepare accordingly.
“Nobody can imagine what will happen in the coming months or weeks,” he said, suggesting that Ukrainians will have to summon reserves of resilience already tested by almost four years of full-scale war. “This is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. The war changes, upgrades, and becomes different every day. The measures for survival, for protection, should be changed as well … That’s how we live.”
Sources:
Reuters – “Russian attacks cut power, heating supply for tens of thousands in southern Ukraine”
